10 Facts about the $SPY Chart 3/29/15

SPY2015

 

  1. Monday and Tuesday warned me to exit my long positions with a failure to make higher highs and then Tuesday with a close below the previous days low of day. I went to cash on Tuesday.
  2. The bears put the brakes on the bulls Wednesday and the bulls failed to ever recover.
  3. The violent whipsaw on Wednesday invalidated all the bullish signals and took the RSI, MACD and intermediate moving averages to a short term down trend.
  4. The $206 breakout from late 2014 has now become resistance here.
  5. The 5 day ema /10 day sma crossover indicated a short term downtrend.
  6. $SPY is under all key short term moving averages 5 day ema, 10 day sma, 21 day ema, and the 50 day sma. These will have to be recovered to indicate a short term up trend is holding.
  7. $SPY failed to ever get back into the Wednesday trading range this is a sign we could see more downside.
  8. $SPY is now trading under the 50 day and the wrong side of the intermediate moving average for up trends.
  9. My momentum entry signal is a possible break above the 50 sma if other indicators line up.
  10. My buy the dip signal would be in the $SPY 30-35 RSI range on the daily chart if we get there.

Ten Facts About the $SPY Chart 3/15/15

SPY2015

 

  1. Current support is the $204.50 that held Wednesday and Friday.
  2. It would not be a good risk/reward to short a break under the $204.50 price level as the RSI will be in the thirties if support is lost and in the oversold rally zone.
  3. $207 is our near term resistance. A break above this level would be a momentum long signal we have room to run higher above the 50 RSI to the high RSI 60’s.
  4. The next level of support is the 100 day sma.
  5. If we rollover Monday under the 100 day then the 30/35 RSI level present a great risk/reward swing long position.
  6. $IWM filled the gap Friday then rallied back off lows of the day while $QQQ held the 50 day this week. The small caps and tech sector are outperforming the big caps but other ‘risk on’ indexes holding these key levels bodes well for the stock market overall.
  7. The MACD line convergence after the bearish crossover has become extreme and the $SPY could rally back from here next week.
  8. In the last 10 days the 6 down days have all been on higher volume than the 4 up days.
  9. The breakout Friday of both Thursday’s high and low of the day shows the uncertainty here of participants.
  10. I am looking to buy a swing low and think an RSI reading in the low 30’s sets up a great risk/reward ratio if we get there to target the $207 price level from.

My $GOOGL Call Option Trades

  1. On February 27th $GOOGL broke out over the key 200 day moving average.
  2. The day finished with a reversal candlestick, so I waited to enter on a pullback to the 200 day, or a continuation above the February 27th close. 
  3. On March 2nd, $GOOGL gapped over the close and continued up. I went long that morning with a weekly $565 strike call option when the price was close to $565; I paid $585. I was only looking to risk Theta with this purchase, and still get maximum Delta to capture much of the move at-the-money.
  4. By the close of the next day, $GOOGL was setting near $580, and I sold my call option for $1,424 in a trade that lasted two trading days. This was an $839 profit for this small trade. I lost two days of Theta value, but picked up $10 of the $15 price move in $GOOGL.

Full disclosure: I entered a second $GOOGL option trade on March 4th; a $577.50 strike weekly for $565 when the price was near $579. I sold the next morning when the market sold off after the payroll report when $GOOGL was near $577. I lost $220 in this second trade. I also avoided the drop that followed in $GOOGL and the market as a whole.  In weekly options it is crucial to take profits while they are there. Time will not bail you out in most cases.

googl2015

10 Facts About the $SPY Chart 3/8/15

SPY2015

Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

  1. The long term uptrend is still in place.
  2. $SPY pulled back and found support on the previous all time high breakout from late 2014. (This resistance/support line has been on my chart for weeks. It was not drawn this morning).
  3. There was a bearish MACD cross on Thursday that was confirmed by the drop Friday.
  4. The RSI dropping below the 50 RSI puts us on the weak side of the RSI line and shows the loss of momentum for now.
  5. The fact that the stock market sold off so strongly on the great job numbers is something to watch out for as a change of market dynamics. Price will have to confirm with the inability to make new highs.
  6. The odds here favor a pullback after the recent run.
  7. The key bounce zones to watch is first the 50 day sma.
  8. If the 50 day is lost then the 100 day sma or the 30 RSI zone would provide a great risk/reward ratio trade set up.
  9. This is currently just a normal pull back with an old breakout becoming a new support level.
  10. If you want to sell short then realize downtrends are more difficult because they are more volatile and have many false rallies back to old resistance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$GOOGL Break Out

Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

googl2015

 

$GOOGL has broken out above the 200 day. This is a viable option to buy with correct position sizing with a stop loss placed at a close below the 200 day. Options in $GOOGL are also liquid, giving the trader a way to cap their risks at only the cost of the contract. This is a rare opportunity in $GOOGL: a momentum buy signal after a long sell off and trading range.