5 Signs a Civilization is About to Fail

5 Signs a Civilization is About to Fail

Let’s dive deep into why civilizations and empires of the past have crumbled. Today, I would like to share five telltale signs that a civilization may be on the brink of failure. Understanding these factors can help leaders and politicians avoid making the same mistakes and forge a better future.

What are the signs of civilization collapse?

  1. The Complexity of Bureaucracy (energy return on investment)
  2. External Shocks
  3. Environmental Degradation
  4. Inequality and Oligarchy
  5. Cyclical Climate Change

It is challenging to pinpoint a single factor as the number one cause of the collapse of the world’s most prominent civilizations. Each civilization’s decline was often the result of a unique combination of the above factors. However, one common thread that runs through many of these collapses is the issue of political instability or ineffective governance.

Political instability can arise from various sources, including weak or corrupt leadership, internal power struggles, economic issues, and social unrest. These factors often interact with and exacerbate each other, leading to a decline in the civilization’s overall stability and resilience. For instance, ineffective governance can lead to economic decline, fueling social unrest and further weakening the political structure.

Examples of civilizations that experienced political instability or ineffective governance leading to their collapse include the Roman Empire, the Maya civilization, and the Han Dynasty in China. In each case, internal and external pressures, often rooted in political issues, contributed to their eventual decline.

However, it’s essential to note that no single factor can be considered the sole cause of a civilization’s collapse. In reality, the fall of these great civilizations was usually the result of a complex interplay of factors, such as environmental degradation, economic problems, external invasions, and demographic changes. The common thread of political instability is just one aspect of a much larger and more intricate web of causes that contributed to the decline of these once-great civilizations.

Let’s explore the top five causes that work together in many cases to cause the eventual collapse of once-great civilizations.

The Complexity of Bureaucracy (energy return on investment)

First, let’s examine the complexity of bureaucracy. As societies evolve, they become increasingly intricate, with layers of rules, regulations, and procedures. While this complexity can serve a purpose, it can also be detrimental, as it requires more and more energy to maintain. When the energy return on investment becomes too low, it can signal the beginning of the end for a civilization. Political instability and ineffective governance are at the core of any civilization’s collapse and are usually the result of an incompetent or corrupt bureaucracy. This can usu

In the context of bureaucracy, “energy return on investment” (EROI) refers to the balance between the resources or effort invested in maintaining a complex bureaucratic system and its benefits or outcomes. As a civilization grows and becomes more complex, its administrative systems and institutions often expand in size and intricacy, requiring more resources, time, and effort to manage.

The energy invested in this context can encompass financial resources, human resources, time, and other types of capital allocated to maintaining the bureaucracy. On the other hand, the return on investment refers to the efficiency, stability, and functionality that the bureaucratic system provides to the civilization.

A high EROI means that the benefits gained from the bureaucratic system outweigh the resources invested in it. This can lead to stability, growth, and development. However, as the complexity of bureaucracy increases, the EROI may decrease. When the energy required to maintain the bureaucracy becomes excessive, it can consume a significant portion of the civilization’s resources, leaving less for other vital areas, such as infrastructure, defense, and social services. This can lead to a decline in the overall stability and efficiency of the civilization, making it more vulnerable to internal and external challenges.

In essence, the concept of “energy return on investment” in the context of bureaucracy highlights the need for balance and efficiency in administrative systems, as overly complex bureaucracies can contribute to the decline or collapse of a civilization.

For instance, the Roman Empire experienced this phenomenon. Over time, the empire became so vast and complex that it required a massive bureaucracy. The bureaucracy consumed a substantial portion of the empire’s resources, weakening it and contributing to its eventual fall.

“Frivolity, aestheticism, hedonism, cynicism, pessimism, narcissism, consumerism, materialism,
nihilism, fatalism, fanatics, and other negative behaviors and attitudes suffuse the population
politics is increasingly corrupt, life is increasingly unjust; a cabal of insiders accrues wealth and
power at the expense of the citizens fostering a fatal opposition of interests between haves
and have-nots, the majority lives for bread and circuses. They worship celebrities and
throw off social and moral restraints, shirk duties but insist on entitlements” – Sir John Bagot Glubb

External Shocks

Another factor that can lead to the downfall of civilization is external shocks, such as invasions, pandemics, or natural disasters. These events can cause tremendous damage, particularly if civilization is weakened due to other factors.

The Aztec Empire offers a prime example of this. Although the empire was experiencing internal strife, the arrival of the Spanish conquistadors ultimately led to its collapse. The invaders brought with them not only superior weapons but also diseases, which decimated the indigenous population.

Environmental Degradation

Thirdly, environmental degradation plays a significant role in the collapse of civilizations. When a society’s resource base is eroded, it becomes increasingly difficult to support its population, leading to social unrest and, eventually, collapse.

The ancient civilization of Easter Island is a stark reminder of this. The island’s inhabitants overexploited their environment, cutting down trees and exhausting their resources. As a result, the once-thriving civilization declined, leaving behind the iconic moai statues as a testament to their former glory.

Inequality and Oligarchy

Inequality and oligarchy are additional factors that can contribute to the failure of a civilization. When wealth and power become concentrated in the hands of a few, the majority of the population can become disenchanted and restless, leading to social instability.

This phenomenon can be observed in the French Revolution, where the vast wealth disparities between the nobility and the ordinary people led to widespread discontent and, ultimately, revolution. The social upheaval that ensued contributed to the collapse of the French monarchy.

Cyclical Climate Change

Lastly, cyclical climate change can also play a part in the demise of a civilization. Shifts in weather patterns can cause crop failures, food shortages, and famines, resulting in social unrest and political instability.

The Classic Maya civilization is an example of this. Researchers believe that a series of prolonged droughts may have contributed to the decline of this once-great civilization as the inhabitants struggled to cope with the changing environment.

What are the stages of the collapse of civilization?

Stages of Collapse

  • Stage 1: Financial collapse
  • Stage 2: Commercial collapse
  • Stage 3: Political collapse
  • Stage 4: Social collapse
  • Stage 5: Cultural collapse

Stage 1: Financial Collapse

A financial collapse is often the first stage in the disintegration of a civilization. During this phase, the economy experiences severe disruptions, manifesting as hyperinflation, banking crises, or a sudden devaluation of the currency. These economic troubles can lead to widespread unemployment, reduced government revenues, and a declining standard of living. Financial collapse often weakens the foundation of civilization, making it more vulnerable to other forms of collapse.

Stage 2: Commercial Collapse

The second stage of a civilization’s collapse is commercial collapse. This phase is characterized by a breakdown of the essential systems and networks that facilitate trade, communication, and the distribution of goods and services. As the economy falters, businesses struggle to survive, and supply chains break down, leading to scarcity and the inability to meet the population’s basic needs. The commercial collapse further undermines the stability of civilization and can exacerbate existing social and political tensions.

Stage 3: Political Collapse

The third stage of a civilization’s collapse is political collapse. This stage is marked by the disintegration of governance structures, including the loss of central authority, the fragmentation of political power, and the rise of factions or separatist movements. Political collapse often results from weak or corrupt leadership, internal power struggles, and external pressures like invasions or economic crises. As political institutions crumble, a civilization loses its ability to respond effectively to crises, maintain order, and provide essential services to its population.

Stage 4: Social Collapse

The fourth stage of a civilization’s collapse is social collapse. During this phase, the fabric of society begins to unravel, and trust between individuals and groups erodes. As the political and economic systems break down, crime rates may increase, civil unrest may become more widespread, and social cohesion may weaken. Without strong institutions and a functioning economy, people may turn to alternative sources of support, like gangs, militias, or religious or tribal affiliations. The social collapse further contributes to the overall decline of a civilization, making a recovery increasingly difficult.

Stage 5: Cultural Collapse

The final stage of a civilization’s collapse is cultural collapse. This phase is marked by the erosion of the shared values, beliefs, and practices that once united a civilization. As the other stages of collapse unfold, people may lose faith in the ideals and institutions that once defined their identity. Cultural traditions and practices may be abandoned or altered, and the sense of shared history and common purpose may fade. Cultural collapse can lead to civilization’s disappearance or fragmentation, leaving only traces of its former glory.

Key Takeaways

  • Bureaucratic complexity can lead to a diminished energy return on investment, causing the weakening of a civilization.
  • External shocks, such as invasions or pandemics, can accelerate a civilization’s decline.
  • Environmental degradation erodes a society’s resource base, making it difficult to support the population.
  • Inequality and oligarchy can cause social instability, leading to the collapse of a civilization.
  • Cyclical climate change can contribute to a civilization’s downfall through food shortages and unrest.


In conclusion, civilizations throughout history have faced collapse due to various factors. From the complexity of bureaucracy to external shocks, environmental degradation, inequality and oligarchy, and cyclical climate change, these elements have all played a part in the downfall of once-great empires. By understanding these warning signs and learning from history, we can strive to create a more stable and sustainable future for ourselves and our descendants. So, as historians teach us about the past world of human catastrophes, I hope the lessons will inspire leaders now and in the future to consider history and work together to build a more resilient society.