I sold my personal $SPY position on Thursday at the end of day. I did this because for the trend to have continued on the daily chart it had to start building another price base or go parabolic to $175 or $180 if it did not continue up then the odds were that it would retrace to the 5 day ema that is was very extended from. After the red bar Thursday the odds were that I would get a better entry than $173 if I wanted back in, this is what played out Friday with a retracement to the 5 day ema the very next day.

I have posted both the adjusted and unadjusted chart due to $SPY going post dividend Friday. There was a lot of confusion about the dividend being part of the losses Friday, that is not true, we opened $172.33 after the dividend payout was adjusted into the price then fell another .70% after that.

  1. We are still in a healthy bull market.

  2. The risk/reward in the $SPY is not as favorable for long positions as it was back at the 100 day and $166 price level. Bulls need some price consolidation and a new catalyst.

  3. $173 was the level where buyers where overwhelmed with sellers, $SPY spent very little time at those price levels, this is the new area of resistance.

  4. Friday was only the 2nd time that $SPY made a lower high and lower low from the day before in 14 straight trading days.

  5. For those that use RSI price was rejected at the 70 overbought reading. The RSI has worked this year in the $SPY.

  6. The 5 day ema held as support on Friday.

  7. Most of the post FOMC Wednesday run never happened now since it was cancelled out Friday with the retracement.

  8. With no catalyst coming for the market it will be very difficult to give buyers a reason to climb back to the $173 price level next week.

  9. The odds are that we are range bound here for awhile, next week will be about discovering that range.

  10. The next level of support is at the $169.50 level at the 10 day sma.

  11. Market leaders like $FB and $TSLA charts still look outstanding and did not care about the $SPY sell off Friday.

  12. We may be back to a stock pickers market for awhile as $SPY settles back into range bound mode and we see where we go from the 5 day ema. The path of least resistance now appears to be down.