This is a Guest Post by AK of Fallible
AK has been an analyst at long/short equity investment firms, global macro funds, and corporate economics departments. He co-founded Macro Ops and is the host of Fallible.
We’ve been short gold (GLD) since April and have since added to the position, which has so far worked out well for us.
The precious metal is now at a major inflection point. It recently broke below its 5-year inverted H&S pattern (chart below is a monthly). If it doesn’t reverse here then that’ll spell big technical trouble for the barbarous relic.
I think this is the most exciting chart in macro right now. This is because gold is often a tell for the other major macro instruments; meaning it has a tendency to lead the dollar, rates, and relative US vs. ROW outperformance.