# Probabilities

## The Science of Luck: How to Get Lucky

“Luck is when preparation meets opportunity.” – Roman philosopher Seneca.  Unlock Your Luck: The Science of How to Get Lucky Do you ever feel like success and failure are determined by luck rather than hard work or skill? Well, it turns out that there may be some truth to this idea. Luck and timing at …

## Law of Small Numbers

The law of small numbers is a fallacy that leads people to believe that a small sample size of data will be enough to resemble the normal data of the whole and determine the probabilities of future sample sizes.  In trading this error would lead someone to backtest one year’s worth of price action signals …

## The Bayes Theorem Formula

Inside probability theory, conditional probability is a way to calculate and measure the probability of some event happening if another event has already occurred. The Bayes’ Theorem is one way of calculating a probability of something occurring when you know probabilities of other things happening.  The Bayes’ theorem is a mathematical formula that explains how to …