The 5 Reasons I Do Not Play Earnings

The 5 Reasons I Do Not Play Earnings


The 5 Reasons I Do Not Play EarningsHolding through earnings with stock is gambling in my opinion. A price can go either way, it is a 50/50 bet based on the perception of earnings versus the expectations of investors and traders. Blow out earnings can still cause a down move if they do not beat by enough and the the stock runs out of buyers at new higher prices. A terrible earnings can cause a stock to soar because the weaker hands have already gotten out and the sale off becomes exhausted at lower prices, a stock can rip upwards off a relief rally becasue earnings were not as bad as expected. It is a very difficult game to play, there are easier ways to make money in the market than to ride this roller coaster.

  1. Holding through earnings either long or short can lead to substantial losses when your direction is wrong. It is difficult to use risk management and stops in the after hours. 

  2. It is difficult to play options through earnings due to the volatility collapse after the move, the stock has to move more than the Vega valuation even when you pick the right direction. (The move is priced in.)

  3. Betting both directions playing option strangles through earnings is very difficult because even though you do not have to pick the right direction you have to overcome a double Vega collapse on both sides.

  4. I have found it much more profitable to play the trend leading into earnings and the trend after earnings than to go through the gap that is usually earnings.

  5. You can’t trade options after market hours when earnings are released. You are trapped until the next day’s market open. Not a good position to be in, as Apple call buyers are discovering today.