index

  1. A breakout into an overbought price level as measured in the historical context of an oscillator. This is almost always a bad trade. $SPY breaking out into a 65 RSI is not the same as it breaking out of a long term price range, to all time highs over a 50 RSI.
  2. Buying a breakout without understanding where key price resistance levels are coming from is a bad idea.
  3. Buying breakouts against the current market trend usually does not work.  Buying them in the direction of the overall trend has better odds of success.
  4. When you buy a breakout and it fails and falls back through the lows of the previous day, it is time to get out. If the lows of the breakout day are held, there is a good chance of a new range and new trend.
  5. Buying on the anticipation of a breakout before it actually happens is usually a bad idea. You should look for a confirmed breakout for better odds of success.
  6. Chasing a break out after a multiple day move is not a good idea.  You need a profit cushion to enable a longer term hold.
  7. Buying breakouts in commodities and high growth stocks has a much better probability of success than in big cap stocks or indexes.