Trading in the Valley of Uncertainty


The S & P 500 has been range bound for a week holding at the 10 day moving average as support. The problem is that it can run the full range and back in 48 hours.

The market is currently range bound in a $131/$134 $SPY price box. A price break out from here could be the beginning of the trend I have been waiting for.

Traders have been having difficulty placing any real bets due to not knowing if the Spanish bailout is going to be enough, if Greek elections will cause them to leave the European Union (which is still unthinkable but possible). If Obama-care will be enacted and if so what impact that will have on the private sector.

These low volume  trading days allow the market to be moved around very easily increasing volatility even more than would be normal.

I have searched but can not find any real high probability trades for my trend trading style , break outs do not work in a volatile non-trending market, junk stocks keep bouncing from their graves long enough to shake me out of the short side, facebook has become a day trading stock not a trending one, Google is in trouble but will burst up for a day and shake shorts out, even when we approach a price level to break out we immediately go to the other end of the range the next day in the $SPY. It is dangerous to buy the $SPY at the 10 sma support becasue when that is lost we could truly start a real sustained down trend  with snap back rallies mixed in.

This is not a time to press trading and burn up past profits, this is a time of waiting and picking your spots carefully.

We are living in the valley of  uncertainty and indecision is our king.

What does a trader do when the price action has become mostly random, trends have disappeared, and price patterns are not making much sense? NOTHING.

It is your move Greece, the whole world is watching and waiting.