Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

 

  1. 2015 index ETF returns are at $SPY +2.19% $DIA +0.71% $IWM -0.33% and $QQQ gained +11.18% thanks primarily to $FB $AMZN $AAPL $NFLX and $GOOGL year to date. This market has been absent a long term trend in 2015 and until late August it did not even swing widely in price.
  2. The stock market is still not under accumulation as $SPY is back where it was in July and unable to break above the July 20th high price.
  3. The recovery back to where we started before the 10% correction was simply getting back to even for buy and hold investors and trend followers. I do not understand the overwhelming bullishness here after a year of flat returns and volatile price action.  The danger lies to the downside still.
  4. The MACD is close to a bearish crossover here giving a short signal for a good risk/reward ratio short side trade.
  5. The $SPY 70 RSI held as an end of day resistance on the chart as price tried to grind higher and failed.
  6. $SPY had two days of lower highs and lower lows after the bearish candle Wednesday.
  7. $SPY has spent fours days in a trading range.
  8. The 10 day EMA has been $SPY end of day support for the past 25 trading days. It was breached intra-day on Friday.
  9. The 50 day SMA is still under the 200 day SMA which is bearish and shows the change in the long term trend from up to down.
  10. I will be taking the bearish MACD crossover as a short signal if it happens next week. The risk/reward here favors the downside.