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Charts Courtesy of StockCharts.com
- The $SPY has transitioned to a range bound market with price between the 200 day SMA support and all time high resistance.
- The average trading range remains elevated at a 4.62 ATR. Volatile moves last week went in both directions.
- The MACD is in the process of a bearish cross under.
- With the loss of momentum to the upside last week the RSI is near neutral at 46 with room to go in either direction.
- Price bounced off the 100 day SMA last week.
- $VIX trended higher last week and ended at 19.59. Increasing the cost of put options on the $SPY ask risk of return to the 200 day SMA increases.
- “Only one of the big five sectors hit a new high in February $XLK The other four, which account for around 51% of $SPY. Did not even challenge their January highs. $XLI $XLV $XLY $XLY.” – Arthur Hill CMT
- Historically trade tariffs have been bearish short term for the stock market as it increases the cost of goods that cut into earnings on the buy side.
- The $SPY is near a bearish 10 day EMA/ 50 day EMA cross under if we continue to go down from here.
- I continue to be in buy the dip mode as the market remains inside a large trading range inside a bigger long term up trending bull market.