1. We are still in an overall bull market with the $SPY over the 50 day.
  2. Leaders are still making all time highs and leading $TSLA $FB $DDD
  3. The $SPY is in a short term down trend.
  4. Five of the past six days have been lower highs and lower lows over the previous day.
  5. We did have a 50 day bounce based on  the unadjusted chart used by Worden and MarketSmith.
  6. We have six days of closing below the 5 day ema.
  7. On Thursday the 10 day was rejected on the adjusted chart #2.
  8. Equities as an asset class seem to be on a risk off mode going in front of the risk of a U.S. Federal Government shutdown.
  9. The previous two times the 50 day was tested it was lost very easily so I will be waiting for confirmation strength to buy back long either a loss and then retaking  and close above  the 50 day line or a close above the 10 day sma. I can not buy this currently falling knife.
  10. I will be very cautious next week with the stock market being held hostage by the Congress, we could see an extreme plunge if Congress creates enough fear or a huge relief rally on a deal being struck. I may put on a long option strangle next week to benefit from one of these outcomes using $FAS if option premium is reasonable.

SPYCHart

SPYChart2