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Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
- The surprisingly bad job’s report released on Friday was initially sold off, but then recovered and rallied back to erase the majority of morning losses.
- We traded around a $208.85 support and a $211 resistance level last week in $SPY. This is a good price base to build, setting up another run to higher levels. This market continues to be a buy the dip and sell the rip until $SPY closes over $211.
- The all-time highs continued to hold as resistance last week. The more times a key level is tested, the higher the probability that it will breakout. Above resistance, the only selling pressure will be profit taking, so it’s possible to create a new trading range above all-time highs as short sellers cover and position holders let their winners run. There is a high probability that we will see $SPY break out to new all-time highs next week.
- $SPY continues to be bullishly over all key moving averages: 10 day EMA, 50 day SMA, and 200 day SMA.
- The 60.71 RSI is bullish and gives $SPY room for higher prices before becoming overbought.
- The MACD is still under a bullish crossover.
- The ATR continues to decline, which is bullish.
- Slow Stochatistics has gone sideways, demonstrating that $SPY is short term rangebound.
- Last week, $SPY had high volume down days and low volume up days while trading inside the price range. The absence of sellers under $208.86 has been positive for bulls.
- In the short term, the market upside is limited around the $SPY 70 RSI, but we could see long term moves into new all-time highs this year if $SPY doesn’t pullback or correct.