Short Term Top Near? $SPY Chart 7/17/16

Short Term Top Near? $SPY Chart 7/17/16
Short Term Top Near? $SPY Chart 7/17/16
Chart Courtesy of
  1. $SPY is currently breaking out of a range into a new long term uptrend. Markets do not go straight up so look for a trading range to develop here before another strong up leg for price to new all time highs. It is possible we spend next week under this all time high.
  2. 65.21 RSI is near overbought. Not a good risk/reward ratio to enter longs so late in the uptrend here before a pullback.
  3. Price is extended by over one ATR over the 10 day EMA. The odds favor a pullback to the 10 day EMA this week.
  4. Slow Stochastics is under a bearish cross showing slowing momentum.
  5. MACD is still under an extreme bullish cross but is extended and late in the uptrend.
  6. $VIX at 12.67 is close to the lowest levels of 2016. It is probable that volatility spikes next week and the trading range expands.
  7. It will be very bullish if the market does not sell off on the failed Turkey coup.
  8. $SPY can advance +2 ATR and the 70 RSI before I get a sell short signal.
  9. This is a bull market in stocks with $GLD and $TLT finally going down.
  10. IPOs are all in strong uptrends over their 5 day EMA and 10 day EMA which is very bullish. $TWLO $ACIA

This is the type of market I find an edge in selling short near extreme oversold levels like the 70 RSI for small pullbacks or buy dips near the 10 day ema or the 50 RSI. I am looking to sell $DIA short next week into any rally higher or buy a deep dip on $SPY.